World Cup 2026 Updating Model
We post the pics almost every day, but this is where you can see the model as it updates somewhat “live.”
We’ll try and update the model on a daily basis after the results roll in from the day before, showing who is going to advance from groups, who is going to win in the knockout stages, and who ultimately wins the World Cup. You will see a lot of drift just because we simulate a thousand times and we don’t use a static seed. This means that you may see France, for example, go up or down several percent despite not playing in that particular day. As the tournament goes on, this should start to auto-correct and also show the difference versus our initial model as things change.
If you’re interested in the original ride up, check it out here: World Cup 2026 Model