We're 10-1-1 on the World Cup So Far - Here's Saturday's Lineup
Two days down, and the early returns are honestly a little silly. Our forecasts have gone ten and two, and the value bets are up about 83 percent. I built this thing to be graded in public, and so far it is passing faster than I expected. I will pull those two numbers apart in a minute, because they measure different things and I do not want to sell you a blur. But first, for the people who are here for the picks and not the prose, here are the goods.
Today’s picks, if you’re in a hurry
Here are the plays the model likes most across today’s four games, biggest edge first:
Brazil vs Morocco: Under 2.5 goals. Our single biggest edge of the day.
Haiti vs Scotland: Under 2.5 goals.
Switzerland to beat Qatar.
Qatar vs Switzerland: Over 2.5 goals.
Morocco to upset Brazil. A value bet, not a prediction. Likely to lose, but the price is too long.
Australia to upset Turkey. Same idea. Probably loses, still the right bet.
If that is all you came for, enjoy your day. If you want to know why, keep reading.
Two scoreboards, not one
I want to keep these straight, because they are two different things and blending them together would be lying to you.
The first is accuracy: how often the model’s most likely call actually happens. Through two days that is ten and two. We have nailed the total goals in all four games, both teams to score in three of four, and the winner in three of four. That is the “are our predictions any good” number.
The second is betting: when our price disagrees with the market, do we make money. That is the 83 percent return, and as a betting record those value picks sit at eleven and one. But here is the part today’s card makes obvious. A value bet and a prediction are not the same thing. Sometimes the smart bet is on a team we expect to lose.
Take Australia tonight. We think Turkey are the most likely winners. We are also betting Australia, because the price on Australia is too long for a side with a real chance. Australia will probably lose. It is still the right bet. So when one of our underdog plays goes down, that is not a blown forecast, it is a positive-value bet that did not hit this time. You judge those over a hundred bets on the return, not over one game on the result.
So: ten and two on what we think happens, plus a healthy return on where we think the market is wrong. Two days, tiny sample, variance is patient, and I am not getting a tattoo. But it is a very good start, and I will show you the bad days as loudly as the good ones.
On to today, where the model has opinions, and a couple of them are spicy.
Game one: Qatar vs Switzerland, the one game we want goals
Switzerland are a class above here, and the model knows it. It makes them about an 89 percent shot to win, which is actually higher than the market’s 79. So Switzerland to win is the pick, and it is a rare spot where we are even more confident than the bookies.
What makes this game stand out is the goals. Almost everywhere else today the model wants the under, but here it wants the over 2.5, because it expects Switzerland to simply run up the score on a Qatar side that is overmatched. Expected scoreline is something like 0-3. So the plays are Switzerland to win and over 2.5 goals, with both-teams-to-score landing on no, since the model does not give Qatar much hope of finding the net.
Game two: Brazil vs Morocco, where we go against the grain
This is the biggest disagreement we have with the market all day, and it is the one I find most interesting. The bookies make Brazil a strong favorite, around 57 percent. Our model has them at just 42. That is a wide gap, and it cuts two ways.
First, the goals. Under 2.5 is our single biggest edge of the day. The model sees a tight, cagey, low-event game, nothing like the goal fest the casual fan expects when Brazil are involved. Expected total is under two.
Second, the upset. The model has Morocco at 26 percent, where the market has them at 17. Morocco are a genuinely good side, they went deep at the last World Cup, and we think the market is underrating them because the other name on the teamsheet is Brazil. So Morocco to win is the value bet here, and I want to be clear about what that means. Brazil are still the most likely winners. Morocco are the price, not the prediction. The bet loses more often than it wins, that is what an underdog is, but at this number the model says it pays for itself over time. If you want the safer version, Brazil failing to win, the draw included, is where the real value sits.
Game three: Haiti vs Scotland, a grind
Not much drama in the winner market. Scotland are favored at about 61 percent, and the model agrees, so there is no edge to chase on who wins. This one is all about the goals, and again the model wants them low. Under 2.5 is a double-digit edge, and both teams to score: no comes along with it. Expect a tight, tense, low-scoring Scotland win or a frustrating draw. Not the prettiest game on the card, but a clear read.
Game four: Australia vs Turkey, another value underdog
The market loves Turkey here, pricing them around 56 percent. The model does not, putting them at just 44. And on the other side it likes Australia far more than the price suggests, 27 percent for us against 18 for the market. So Australia to win is our second value bet of the day. To say it plainly: Turkey are the most likely winners, Australia are the mispriced side. Australia will probably lose, and it is still the right play, in a game the market has tilted too far toward Turkey.
The goals lean the same way as most of the slate, under 2.5, with the model expecting a cagey, tactical night. Turkey have not lost in a while and they are organized, but organized and overpriced can both be true at the same time, and that is exactly the spot we like to bet.
The card, in one line
Three unders, a rare over on Switzerland running up the score, and two value underdogs where we think the favorite is too short. Every pick and every price is already logged, same as always, so by tomorrow morning we will know how it went, win or lose, with the receipts out.
Ten and two on the calls, plus a healthy return on the bets, and a card today with two underdogs we fully expect might lose. That is the job. Let’s go find more. Enjoy the football.