Day Fifteen: Group E Holds Its Breath While Group D Yawns
The World Cup keeps rolling on...
The group stage is down to its last gasps, and today is a study in contrast. Group E gives us two of the most loaded games of the entire round, both genuine win-or-go-home affairs. Group D gives us the single most pointless fixture of the tournament. Same evening, opposite ends of the spectrum, and we have the numbers on both.
Yesterday
Groups A, B and C wrapped up, and the headline was a stunner. South Africa, who needed to win and were second best for long stretches, beat South Korea 1-0 to steal second place in Group A and a knockout date with Canada. It was a smash-and-grab, their expected goals were barely half of South Korea’s, but the points are the points. Elsewhere it went to form: Mexico finished the job with a 3-0 over Czechia to win Group A with a perfect nine, Brazil saw off Scotland 3-0 to top Group C, Switzerland beat Canada 2-1 to take Group B, and Bosnia and Morocco both won to settle the rest.
For us it was a strong day on winners, five of the six, with only the South Africa upset beating us. The blemish was our one published bet, the Under in Morocco against Haiti, which the Atlas Lions blew up in a 4-2. The totals have run hot all week, and that is worth keeping in mind reading today’s card.
Today’s drama is all in Group E
Germany have already won the group, so both of the other Group E sides are playing for their lives in the two games that kick off together.
Ecuador against Germany is the headline, and it comes with a great wrinkle. Germany are through and protecting their top seed, and their manager has hinted at sweeping changes, possibly all eleven. Ecuador, meanwhile, must win to have any chance, and here is the catch: they have not scored a single goal in this entire World Cup. A side that cannot find the net, needing to beat even a much-changed Germany, with one of the meanest defenses in the tournament but no answer at the other end. If there was ever a night for them to finally score, this is it.
Curaçao against Ivory Coast is the other half. Curaçao, a nation of just over a hundred thousand people at their first ever World Cup, have to win and somehow erase a minus-six goal difference, which realistically means they need a small miracle. Ivory Coast need only avoid defeat to go through, and they have the better players almost everywhere. The romance is all on one side, the probability all on the other.
And today’s nothing is Turkey against the USA
We flagged this one days ago as the game that would not matter, and now it is here. The United States have already won Group D. Turkey are already eliminated. Nothing either side does tonight changes a thing about where they go next, and we can prove it: run the USA’s result three ways, win, draw or lose, and they finish first every time and most likely meet Bosnia in the last 32, the percentages barely flickering. It is the purest dead rubber of the tournament. Somebody has to play it.
The one Group D game with a pulse is Paraguay against Australia. Both are on three points, the USA having taken top spot, and Paraguay are without their suspended captain and top scorer. A draw probably sneaks Paraguay through as a best third, but a defeat almost certainly ends them, so they have to avoid losing against an Australia side that has never beaten a South American team at a World Cup.
Today’s picks
The model is leaning hard into the totals today, four published plays, and three of them are Unders. We like the Under in Curaçao against Ivory Coast, in Ecuador against Germany, where neither side looks built to score in bulk, and the Over in the Paraguay game. The one I would flag is the Under in Tunisia against the Netherlands. The model sees value there, but the Dutch are the second-highest scorers in the tournament and Tunisia have the leakiest defense, so a low-scoring night is the opposite of what the form book suggests. It is exactly the kind of contrarian Under that has bitten us before. We publish it because the edge is real, but go in with your eyes open.
The bracket is filling in
With three groups complete, the knockout picture is starting to lock. Canada against South Africa in the last 32 is now certain, the first fixed tie on the board. Run the rest of the groups out from the live odds and the most likely ties behind it are familiar names finding each other in the runner-up slots. Every result today removes another layer of fog.
More tomorrow, when Groups G, H and I have their say, and the bracket gets a lot closer to real.